SHFE tin is in the doldrums, pressured by inventory buildup, while LME tin awaits macro guidance [SMM tin futures brief comment]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): **Price Movement**: Today's opening price was 265,820 yuan/mt, with a high of 265,820 yuan/mt, a low of 260,510 yuan/mt, and a closing price of 262,890 yuan/mt. The settlement price was 263,570 yuan/mt, down 1,350 yuan (a 0.51% decline) from the previous day. **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volume was 95,678 lots, with open interest at 26,633 lots, an increase of 388 lots from the previous day.

**LME Tin Contract (3-month) Overnight Performance**: Closed near $33,205/mt (down slightly by 0.35%), with recent sideways movement maintained between $33,000-34,000/mt.

Trump announced that a 25%-32% tariff would be imposed on tin-producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia starting August 1, but indicated that "negotiable extensions" were possible, leading to increased risk-aversion sentiment in the market.

US June non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, postponing expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. However, under high debt pressure (with the average interest rate on US debt reaching 3.294%), the market still bets on an interest rate cut in September. The US dollar index pulled back to 97.58, providing potential support for metal prices.

**SHFE Tin Technical Pattern**: The daily chart is under pressure from the 60-day moving average (265,000 yuan), with the MACD green column expanding and short-term support moving down to the 260,000 yuan level. **Capital Game**: Bulls reduced positions to avoid risks (with open interest in the most-traded SHFE tin contract increasing by only 388 lots), while LME tin bulls and bears are locked in a stalemate at the key $33,000 level.

**SHFE Tin**: Maintains sideways movement within the 250,000-270,000 yuan/mt range, with conflicting support from mine-end costs and inventory buildup during the off-season. A breakthrough requires new macro or supply-side drivers.

**LME Tin**: Follows fluctuations in the US dollar, with significant resistance in the $33,000-34,000 range. A breakthrough above the upper limit may occur if expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts strengthen.